New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 6/30/2025

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the New York Yankees on June 30, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting American League East matchup. With both teams in contention for playoff positioning, the stakes are high. The Blue Jays currently hold a record of 45-38, showing signs of an above-average season, while the Yankees sit at 48-35, boasting a strong campaign thus far.

In their last outing, the Yankees secured a victory, adding momentum to their series against the Blue Jays. The matchup features two intriguing starting pitchers: Max Scherzer for Toronto and Carlos Rodon for New York. Scherzer, ranked 67th among MLB starters according to the leading MLB projection system, has struggled this season with a 5.63 ERA over just two starts. However, his 4.98 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, indicating potential for improvement.

Conversely, Rodon has been impressive, holding a 2.92 ERA and a solid 9-5 record over 17 starts. His 29.7% strikeout rate could pose challenges for a Blue Jays offense that ranks as the 1st least strikeout-prone team in MLB. This dynamic could favor Toronto, as Rodon may find it difficult to capitalize on his strikeout abilities.

The Yankees' offense ranks 3rd best in MLB, highlighted by their power, with 126 home runs this season. In contrast, the Blue Jays, while 4th in batting average, struggle with power and rank 21st in home runs. This could give the Yankees an edge, particularly as they look to exploit Scherzer's tendency to allow fly balls.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's fastball velocity has decreased 1.9 mph this season (93.7 mph) below where it was last season (95.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Ben Rice has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last season's 90-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #5 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Davis Schneider, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18.6 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 games (+11.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 66 games (+20.02 Units / 27% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+7.05 Units / 59% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.92, Toronto Blue Jays 4.74

• Date: June 30, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Max Scherzer - Blue Jays

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