New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Preview – 6/29/2024

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will face off on June 29, 2024, at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an intriguing American League East matchup. The Yankees, currently having a stellar season with a 53-31 record, will look to continue their dominance over the Blue Jays, who are struggling at 37-44. Yesterday, the Yankees routed the Blue Jays 16-5, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Toronto will send Chris Bassitt to the mound, boasting a solid 3.45 ERA over 16 starts this year. However, Bassitt's xFIP of 4.15 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate so far. In his last outing on June 24, Bassitt delivered a strong performance, pitching seven innings and allowing just two earned runs. Given his average projections for today—5.6 innings, 2.9 earned runs, and 5.6 strikeouts—he'll need to be at his best to stymie a potent Yankees lineup.

The Yankees counter with Nestor Cortes, who holds a similarly impressive 3.40 ERA in 17 starts. Cortes has also been somewhat lucky, as indicated by his 3.92 xFIP. He struck out seven batters and allowed three earned runs over seven innings in his last start on June 23. Cortes’s high flyball rate could play to his advantage against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 25th in MLB in home runs, making it tough for Toronto to capitalize on his flyballs.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have struggled, ranking 23rd overall in MLB, with particularly poor showings in batting average (21st) and home runs (25th). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains a bright spot, hitting .291 with 12 home runs and 44 RBIs. Over the last week, Guerrero Jr. has been on fire, batting .393 with four home runs and 13 RBIs.

On the other hand, the Yankees' offense is ranked 3rd in MLB, led by Aaron Judge, who has been sensational with a .310 average, 30 home runs, and 79 RBIs this season. Trent Grisham has also been hot lately, batting .444 over the last week.

Betting markets have set the Yankees as slight favorites with a -125 moneyline, equating to an implied win probability of 53%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns closely, giving the Yankees a 52% win probability. This matchup should be competitive, with the Yankees’ superior offense and average bullpen (#19 in Power Rankings) likely giving them the edge over the struggling Blue Jays, whose bullpen ranks 27th. Expect a close game, but the projections lean towards a Yankees victory.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Because flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Nestor Cortes (43.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 4 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In the past two weeks' worth of games, Alex Verdugo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Trent Grisham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last year's 92.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games (+6.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games (+18.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 29% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.24 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.51

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