New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/11/2024

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Shane Baz - Rays

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to host the New York Yankees on July 11, 2024, at Tropicana Field in an American League East showdown. This marks the third game in the series between these division rivals. The Rays, currently sporting a 45-47 record, are having an average season, while the Yankees boast a 56-38 record, solidifying their great season so far.

On the mound for the Rays is right-hander Shane Baz, who has had a shaky start to the season with a 4.50 ERA in just one game, losing that lone start. Baz's peripherals, including a 3.61 xFIP, suggest he has been unlucky and could see improvements going forward. The advanced-stat Power Rankings place Baz at #114 among approximately 350 starting pitchers in MLB, indicating an average performance.

The Yankees will counter with left-hander Nestor Cortes, who comes in with a 3.41 ERA over 19 starts this year. Despite his 4-7 Win/Loss record, Cortes is ranked #35, showcasing his effectiveness on the mound. The projections see Cortes allowing 2.4 earned runs over 5.5 innings, with an average 5.6 strikeouts. His ability to induce flyballs could play to his advantage against a Rays lineup lacking power, ranking 26th in home runs this season.

Offensively, the Yankees have an edge, ranking 4th in the league compared to the Rays' 23rd. New York's power is evident with the 2nd most home runs in MLB, coupled with their high walk rate, which might be neutralized somewhat by Baz’s low 4.0 BB% rate.

In the bullpen, the Rays hold a significant advantage, ranking 7th, while the Yankees rank 23rd. This disparity could be critical in the later innings of a close game. As the betting markets suggest a tight contest, the implied win probabilities of 52% for the Yankees (-120 moneyline) and 48% for the Rays (+100 moneyline) indicate a game that could go either way.

With the Rays leaning on Brandon Lowe’s recent hot streak and the Yankees' Ben Rice providing a power surge, the matchup offers plenty of intrigue. The Yankees are slight favorites, but the Rays' solid bullpen and Baz’s potential for improvement make this a game worth watching closely.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Nestor Cortes's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (52.7% vs. 47.5% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Trent Grisham has been unlucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 16.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount lower than his 23.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Jose Siri is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Tampa Bay has performed as the #29 offense in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (40.8% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+12.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 94 games (+11.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.20 Units / 86% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.88 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.01

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