New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 4/19/2025

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On April 19, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field in a crucial American League East showdown. Tampa Bay enters this contest with a disappointing 8-12 record, struggling to find consistency this season. Meanwhile, New York boasts a strong 13-7 record, indicating a much better performance to start the year. In their previous meeting, the Yankees walked away with a decisive win, further emphasizing the Rays' need to turn things around.

Shane Baz, projected to start for the Rays, has had a solid individual season with a 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 1.42. Although he ranks as the 46th best starting pitcher in MLB, projections suggest he may face challenges against a powerful Yankees lineup that has hit 34 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in the league. Baz's high flyball rate (38% FB) could make him vulnerable, especially against hitters who excel at driving the ball out of the park.

Carlos Carrasco, the Yankees' starter, has not fared as well, holding a 2-1 record but with a troubling ERA of 5.94. Although Carrasco's xFIP of 4.38 suggests he could improve, his projections indicate he may not pitch deep into the game, averaging only 4.9 innings.

Offensively, the Rays rank 7th in MLB, showcasing strong underlying talent, particularly with their 3rd best team batting average. The Yankees, on the other hand, rank 1st overall, demonstrating their offensive prowess and ability to score runs efficiently. With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, this matchup promises plenty of action, and given Tampa Bay's status as a betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, they will be eager to capitalize on playing at home and reverse their recent fortunes against their divisional rivals.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Because groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Carlos Carrasco (44.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 4 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz has gone to his curveball 11.6% more often this year (32.1%) than he did last season (20.5%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Junior Caminero has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 96.8-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 95 of their last 177 games (+13.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.15 Units / 68% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.8, Tampa Bay Rays 4.96

• Date: April 19, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Yankees
  • Shane Baz - Rays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.