New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 4/20/2025

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On April 20, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field in a crucial matchup for both teams. The Rays, currently sitting at 9-12, are looking to turn around a disappointing start to the season, while the Yankees stand at 13-8 and are enjoying a strong campaign. In their last matchup, the Rays secured a victory, and will look for another today.

Tonight's game features two contrasting pitchers, with the Rays projected to start Ryan Pepiot and the Yankees sending out Max Fried. Pepiot, ranked 91st among approximately 350 starting pitchers, has had a rough season, posting a 1-2 record and a below-average ERA of 4.91. The projections suggest he may have been a bit unlucky, as his xFIP sits at 3.81, indicating potential for improvement. However, Pepiot's struggles with allowing 4.5 hits and 1.9 walks per outing could be detrimental.

Conversely, Fried is having an exceptional season, holding a record of 3-0 and boasting an impressive ERA of 1.88. He ranks 5th among starting pitchers and projects to pitch 6.1 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs. Despite a solid performance, Fried's projections indicate he might end up regressing slightly.

Offensively, the Yankees rank as the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their power as they are 2nd in home runs. The Rays, while 8th overall in offensive ranks, show strength in batting average at 4th, yet their home run production has been average at 17th.

With the Rays as underdogs with a moneyline of +130, and the Yankees favored at -150, this game presents an opportunity for Tampa Bay to upset expectations and capitalize on Fried’s slight regression while trying to find their footing this season. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially competitive showdown.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Trent Grisham has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year's 94.1-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Anthony Volpe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Considering that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Ryan Pepiot (38.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 3 GB hitters in the opposition's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball hitters like Danny Jansen tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Tampa Bay Rays offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Curtis Mead has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.89, Tampa Bay Rays 3.64

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Yankees
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

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