New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 8/16/2025
The New York Yankees will visit the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday night. This is the second game of a three-game series at Busch Stadium. Both teams are in the hunt for playoff spots and this matchup carries huge implications for their postseason chances. Before the first pitch is thrown in St. Louis, you can continue reading to get my Yankees vs Cardinals prediction for tonight.
Our Yankees vs Cardinals Pick
- Pick: Under 7.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 16, 2025, 7:15 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Max Fried (Yankees) vs. Sonny Gray (Cardinals)
- Stadium: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
We get a great pitching matchup in this game. Max Fried is 12-5 with a 2.94 ERA this season. He will take the mound for the Yankees. Fried has been a consistent performer this season and has a solid strikeout rate. His ability to neutralize left-handed hitters with his control will be crucial in this matchup.
Opposing Fried for St. Louis is Sonny Gray. Gray enters this game at 11-5 with a 4.06 ERA. Gray has had a strong season at home. He holds a 2.85 ERA at Busch Stadium for the year. His experience and command will be vital in keeping the potent Yankees lineup at bay.
Key Players
- Yankees: Aaron Judge leads the team with 38 home runs and a .330 batting average. Cody Bellinger and Jasson Domínguez have also been key contributors in the lineup.
- Cardinals: Willson Contreras has been a consistent performer for the Cards. He leads the team with 16 home runs and 65 RBI. Nolan Arenado’s potential return from injury could provide a boost to the Cardinals’ offense.
Recent Team Streaks
- Yankees: The Yankees have won three of their last four games and they currently hold the final AL Wild Card spot.
- Cardinals: The Cardinals have lost three games in a row and they are 3.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Cody Bellinger | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Sonny Gray | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Yankees lead the season series against the Cardinals 1-0.
- The first game of this series went under the total with seven total runs scored.
Yankees vs Cardinals Model Projection
- Score Projection: Yankees 4 – Cardinals 3
- Win Probability: Yankees 55%, Cardinals 45%
Final Thoughts
With Max Fried on the mound, I think the Yankees have the advantage in this game. But I think the better play from a betting standpoint is to bet on this game to stay under the total. Both starting pitchers are good enough to limit the opposing offenses and we should see a second straight game between these teams fall short of its total.
