New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Prediction & Picks 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees prepare to face off on September 19, 2024, both teams come into this American League matchup with different narratives this season. The Yankees, boasting an impressive 89-63 record, are having a strong season, while the Mariners, sitting at 77-75, find themselves in a more average campaign. With both teams still eyeing playoff aspirations, every game counts.

The Mariners, playing at home in T-Mobile Park, will send Logan Gilbert to the mound. Gilbert, ranked as the 17th-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been a reliable force despite a 7-11 win-loss record. His excellent 3.24 ERA suggests that he's been pitching better than his record might indicate. Gilbert's ability to limit walks will be crucial against a Yankees offense that is the most patient in MLB, drawing more walks than any other team.

On the other side, the Yankees will counter with Clarke Schmidt, who has put together a solid season with a 5-3 record and an excellent 2.41 ERA. However, with a 3.74 xFIP, Schmidt's underlying numbers suggest he might have been fortunate this year. Schmidt will face a Mariners offense that ranks 22nd in MLB, struggling with consistency but capable of occasional power surges, ranking 14th in home runs.

Offensively, the Yankees have been dominant, ranking 3rd overall and 1st in home runs. Aaron Judge has been particularly hot, with a .350 batting average and 10 RBIs over the last week. Meanwhile, Victor Robles has been a bright spot for the Mariners, hitting .563 with 5 stolen bases in his last six games.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a slight edge with a 51% win probability, suggesting a close contest. With both teams projected to score around four runs, expect a tight, low-scoring affair where every pitch and at-bat could swing the outcome.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Clarke Schmidt's cut-fastball usage has jumped by 7.7% from last year to this one (28.2% to 35.9%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Aaron Judge has been lucky this year, putting up a .469 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .426 — a .043 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Gleyber Torres has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Over his last 3 outings, Logan Gilbert has produced a sizeable rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2023 rpm over the entire season to 2178 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Justin Turner has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (84% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+10.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 90 games (+15.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.03 vs Seattle Mariners 3.94

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