New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 5/14/2025

On May 14, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the New York Yankees in a pivotal matchup at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, currently sitting at 23-18, are having a solid season but face a tough challenge against the Yankees, who boast a 24-18 record and are considered one of the best teams in the league. In their last meeting, the Mariners emerged victorious, adding pressure on the Yankees today.

Luis Castillo is projected to take the mound for the Mariners. Despite being ranked as the 88th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Castillo has shown flashes of brilliance this season with a 3-3 record and a respectable 3.95 ERA. However, his 4.74 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Castillo's propensity for high flyballs could be concerning against a powerful Yankees lineup that has already belted 74 home runs this season, the most in MLB.

On the other side, Will Warren will start for the Yankees. Although his 4.75 ERA is average, his 3.43 xFIP suggests he may be due for some positive regression. Warren's high groundball rate of 47% could play to his advantage against a Mariners offense that ranks 5th in home runs but has struggled with consistency at times.

The Mariners' offense ranks 7th overall in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, but they must find a way to capitalize on opportunities against a Yankees team that is known for its offensive prowess. Betting markets have set the game total at 8.0 runs, indicating a close contest. With both teams' bullpens ranked in the bottom half of the league, the outcome may hinge on which starting pitcher can limit damage and provide a solid performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Will Warren (46.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 3 FB hitters in Seattle's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Austin Wells has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Oswald Peraza pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo's sinker percentage has spiked by 5.2% from last season to this one (18% to 23.2%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Randy Arozarena has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 92.7-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Seattle Mariners have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+9.90 Units / 66% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.80 Units / 28% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.23, Seattle Mariners 4.18

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Will Warren - Yankees
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

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