New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 5/12/2025

The Seattle Mariners will host the New York Yankees on May 12, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams with optimistic seasons. The Mariners sit at 22-17, while the Yankees slightly edge them at 23-17. Both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the American League, with the Yankees coming off a commanding 12-2 victory, while the Mariners suffered a disappointing 9-1 loss in their last outing.

On the mound, Emerson Hancock is projected to start for the Mariners, while Clarke Schmidt will take the hill for the Yankees. Hancock, currently ranked 233rd among MLB starting pitchers, has struggled this season, holding a 5.70 ERA and a 1-1 record over five starts. However, the projections suggest he might perform better than his stats indicate, thanks to a favorable xFIP of 4.06, which suggests he has been a bit unlucky. Additionally, Hancock’s low strikeout rate of 16.7% could play to his advantage against a Yankees lineup that ranks 6th in the league for strikeouts.

Schmidt, on the other hand, has shown more promise with a 4.79 ERA and a ranking of 67th among starters. He faces a Mariners team that ranks 3rd in MLB for walks, which could lead to trouble if he continues to struggle with an 11.4% walk rate.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 1st ranked home run production. The Mariners, while strong as well, rank 7th overall and will need their power hitters to capitalize on any mistakes made by Schmidt.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets indicate a closely contested matchup. The Mariners' current moneyline is +115, suggesting they have a solid chance to pull off an upset against a Yankees team that has been dominant but may be vulnerable to a patient, disciplined offense.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Trent Grisham has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected batting order today (.332 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .356 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Given that groundball pitchers hold a substantial edge over groundball bats, Emerson Hancock and his 34.2% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in today's outing going up against 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Dylan Moore's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 85.1-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 82.4-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Seattle Mariners hitters collectively grade out 5th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 10.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• Clarke Schmidt has hit the Hits Allowed Over in his last 5 away games (+5.30 Units / 83% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.87, Seattle Mariners 4.12

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners

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