New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 5/13/2025

The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners clash on May 13, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup, especially after the Yankees took the first game of the series yesterday. Both teams are currently vying for position in a tightly contested American League, with the Yankees sitting at 24-17 and the Mariners at 22-18.

Starting for Seattle is Bryan Woo, who boasts a 4-1 record and a solid 3.25 ERA this season. Woo, ranked 18th among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced statistics, has been a reliable option, averaging 5.8 innings pitched per start. However, his tendency to give up 4.5 hits and 1.4 walks on average could be troubling against a Yankees lineup that ranks 1st in home runs with 74 this season. Woo faces a major challenge as he’s a high-flyball pitcher going against a power-heavy offense that thrives on turning fly balls into extra-base hits.

On the other hand, New York counters with Max Fried, who has been nothing short of spectacular this year. With an undefeated record of 6-0 and an impressive 1.05 ERA, Fried is ranked 5th among starting pitchers. He projects to pitch 5.9 innings and allow just 2.1 earned runs, further complicating Seattle's chances. Fried’s high-groundball rate (51%) may help neutralize the Mariners’ potent offense, which, while ranking 7th in the league overall, is not as effective against groundball pitchers.

Betting odds favor the Yankees with a moneyline of -140, translating to a 56% implied win probability, while the Mariners sit at +120 with a 44% implied probability. The low game total of 7.0 runs further suggests a tightly contested battle, emphasizing the strength of both starting pitchers. Seattle's offense, while dangerous, may struggle to capitalize on their power against Fried, marking this as a critical matchup where pitching could very well dictate the outcome.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Max Fried has relied on his non-fastballs 9.9% less often this season (41%) than he did last year (50.9%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Cody Bellinger may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the New York Yankees in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .333, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .360 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Among all starting pitchers, Bryan Woo's fastball velocity of 95 mph grades out in the 84th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Jorge Polanco generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Seattle Mariners batters collectively rank 4th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 10.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games (+15.10 Units / 42% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.10 Units / 57% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+10.40 Units / 49% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4, Seattle Mariners 3.57

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Yankees
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

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