New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Prediction & Picks 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the MLB season winds down, the New York Yankees, who boast a strong 91-64 record, are set to face off against the Oakland Athletics at the Oakland Coliseum on September 22, 2024. The Yankees are currently enjoying a great season and are in a favorable position in the standings. Meanwhile, the Athletics, sitting at 67-88, are not contending for a playoff spot and have had a challenging season.

In this American League matchup, the Yankees come in as the big favorites with a moneyline of -175, translating to an implied win probability of 62%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a 57% chance of victory, while the Athletics are projected with a 43% win probability, slightly better than their odds suggest. This discrepancy might present an opportunity for value betting on the Athletics.

On the mound, Oakland's Joey Estes, ranked #226 among starting pitchers, will face off against New York's Luis Gil, who is ranked #85. Estes has struggled this season with a 4.78 ERA, but his 4.26 xERA suggests he might have been a bit unlucky. Gil, on the other hand, sports a solid 3.14 ERA, though his 4.29 xFIP indicates he may have benefited from some good fortune. Despite these metrics, Gil's high strikeout ability could be a key factor against an Athletics lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Yankees bring the firepower, ranking 1st in home runs and 3rd overall. Oakland's offense, while average in overall ranking, has shown some pop with the 7th most home runs in the league. Shea Langeliers has been a bright spot for the Athletics recently, posting a .368 batting average and a 1.323 OPS over the last week.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (94.9 mph) has been considerably slower than than his seasonal rate (96 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Oakland's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the game: #1 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes is an extreme flyball pitcher (44% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tyler Soderstrom is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Brent Rooker ranks as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 68 games (+13.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 65 of their last 120 games (+13.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.22 vs Oakland Athletics 4.12

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