New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Prediction & Picks 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • JP Sears - Athletics

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics host the New York Yankees at Oakland Coliseum on September 21, 2024, it's clear that the Athletics are not contending, sitting at 67-87 and eliminated from division contention. Meanwhile, the Yankees have enjoyed a stellar season with a 90-64 record, positioning them well in the American League playoff chase.

Oakland's Brent Rooker has been in fine form lately, hitting .375 with a 1.069 OPS over the last week. However, the Yankees' Juan Soto has been even more impressive, posting a .313 batting average and a 1.164 OPS in the same span.

This matchup features a pitching duel between left-handers JP Sears for the Athletics and Carlos Rodon for the Yankees. Sears, ranked 176th among starting pitchers, has shown flashes of effectiveness this season but faces a daunting task against a powerful Yankees lineup ranked 2nd in home runs. Sears's high flyball tendency could be problematic against New York's power hitters. Despite his respectable 4.24 ERA, his 4.84 xFIP suggests he might have been fortunate this season.

On the mound for New York, Carlos Rodon, ranked 88th, brings a solid 4.12 ERA and is projected to continue his strong form. His high strikeout ability matches well against an Athletics lineup that struggles with strikeouts, ranking 4th in the league in that category.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Athletics a 42% chance to win, notably higher than the betting market's implied probability. With the Yankees as the clear favorites, savvy bettors might find value in the Athletics, especially considering their potential to outperform market expectations. Expect a competitive game as Oakland looks to upset the odds against the playoff-bound Yankees.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (41% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Aaron Judge has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96-mph to 98.2-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 10.6% Barrel% of the New York Yankees makes them the #1 team in baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

This year, JP Sears has added a new pitch to his pitch mix (a sinker), throwing it on 10% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, although sinkers are generally one of the least effective pitches.

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for J.J. Bleday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tyler Nevin has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 75 games (+9.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 79 away games (+16.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jose Trevino has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 33 games (+21.65 Units / 51% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.77 vs Oakland Athletics 3.95

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