New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction – 7/4/2025

The Subway Series is back, and I’m not talking about overpriced sandwiches. The New York Yankees and Mets will square off at Citi Field on Friday, July 4, 2025. Here, I break down this New York matchup and make my Yankees vs Mets prediction for Friday afternoon.

Our Yankees vs Mets Pick

Pick: Yankees moneyline

Confidence: ★★★★☆

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Yankees vs Mets
• Date & Time: July 4, 2025 – 3:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Marcus Stroman (Yankees) vs Justin Hagenman (Mets)
• Stadium: Citi Field
• Broadcast: MLB Network, SNY, YES

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Marcus Stroman returned from the injured list with five innings of one-run ball against the Athletics. He still carries an 8.16 ERA, but it was hard not to be encouraged by what we saw from him in his return to the Yankees rotation.
• Justin Hagenman gets the start for the Mets today. He has a 1.50 ERA in six innings of work. He will look to take advantage of the recent struggles of the Yankees offense.

Bullpen usage

Both teams have solid bullpens that carry ERAs under 4.00 into this game. The Mets have a slight advantage in the bullpen ERA department, but that difference is negligible and isn’t expected to be the difference in this game.

Recent team streaks

• The Mets come into the Subway Series on a two-game winning streak. They took the last two games of their three-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers before this contest.
• The Yankees have lost four games in a row, getting swept in a four-game series by the Toronto Blue Jays.

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Yankees have taken two of the first three games between these teams in their regular season series.
• Mets are 40–22 as ML favorites this season.
• The Yankees are just 1-5 as underdogs on the year.
• Both teams have seen over 55% of their games stay under their respective totals.

Mets vs Yankees Model Projection

Score Projection: Yankees 4 – Mets 5

Win Probability: Mets 57%, Yankees 43%

Final Thoughts

Statistically, Marcus Stroman hasn’t looked like a good pitcher this year. But I was impressed with his return to the mound against the Athletics and expect him to hang tough against a strong Mets lineup here. Meanwhile, Hagenman is inexperienced and could struggle with the Yankees’ power. I’m expecting both teams to do their share of scoring in this game, but my best bet is for the Yankees to get the better of Hagenman and for the Yankees to win this game on the road.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.