New York Yankees vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Preview – 6/26/2024

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets and New York Yankees clash in an Interleague matchup on June 26, 2024, at Citi Field, marking the second game of their series. With the Mets having a middling season at 38-39 and the Yankees thriving at 52-29, the dynamic between these two teams couldn't be more different. The Yankees, coming off a loss in the series opener, are positioned as favorites with a -140 moneyline, giving them a 56% implied win probability. Meanwhile, the Mets have an implied win probability of 44% as underdogs at +120.

The pitching matchup features Sean Manaea for the Mets and Luis Gil for the Yankees. Manaea, a lefty, holds a 4-3 record with a 4.16 ERA over 14 starts, placing him as the 97th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, an average rating. Manaea is prone to fly balls (37% FB rate) and walks (9.6% BB rate), which could spell trouble against a Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB with 115 home runs and 1st in walks. Additionally, Manaea is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.5 batters.

Luis Gil, on the other hand, boasts a stellar 9-2 record with a 2.77 ERA in 15 starts, making him the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 3.83 xFIP indicates some luck has been on his side, suggesting potential regression. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 6.2 batters.

Offensively, the Mets rank 11th in team batting average and 8th in home runs, driven by recent standout performances from Francisco Alvarez. Over the past week, Alvarez has hit .400 with a 1.505 OPS and 2 home runs. Conversely, the Yankees' offense ranks 3rd overall and 9th in batting average, powered by Trent Grisham’s hot streak, hitting .500 with a 1.625 OPS over the last week.

The bullpen matchups are fairly even, with the Mets ranked 14th and the Yankees 17th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. Both teams will look to their bullpens to close out the game effectively.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Gleyber Torres is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

With 7 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Sean Manaea will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The New York Mets projected offense profiles as the 5th-best on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.90 Units / 34% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+17.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 15 away games (+11.60 Units / 77% ROI)

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.8 vs New York Mets 4.29

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