The New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins will square off in the finale of their three-game set on Wednesday night at Target Field. The Yankees enter this matchup with clear incentive to perform given their position in the playoff race. Minnesota has been eliminated from postseason contention but has given the Yankees everything they can handle so far this week. Here, I break down this American League matchup and give you my Yankees vs Twins prediction.
Our Yankees vs Twins Pick
- Pick: Yankees -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 17, 2025, 7:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Luis Gil (Yankees) vs Taj Bradley (Twins)
- Stadium: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: MNNT and Prime Video
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Luis Gil has put up solid numbers recently. He is 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA over 41.1 innings, though his WHIP is elevated at 1.40, suggesting some traffic on the bases in his games. He’s struck out 34 but has walked 27 batters, so his command is spotty since he’s returned.
Minnesota’s Taj Bradley is 6-7 with a 4.88 ERA over 132.2 innings. He has shown the ability to generate strikeouts, but he also gives up plenty of hits and has allowed 16 home runs so far this season. That could be a problem against the power-hitting Yankees. The disparity in overall effectiveness favors the Yankees’ starting pitching in this game.
Recent team streaks
- The Yankees are pushing hard in the Wild Card race. After a dramatic 10-9 win over the Twins on Tuesday, they remain ahead of the Houston Astros for the top AL Wild Card spot. They also remain five games behind the Blue Jays in the AL East.
- The Twins have been struggling in September overall. They have lost three of their last four games and they have already been eliminated from AL playoff contention.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Over 0.5 HR |
| Trent Grisham | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Byron Buxton | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Yankees lead the regular-season series 3-2 over the Twins entering Wednesday.
- This is the final regular-season meeting between New York and Minnesota in 2025.
Yankees vs Twins Model Projection
Score Projection: Yankees 6 – Twins 4
Win Probability: Yankees 60%, Twins 40%
Final Thoughts
New York enters this game with more to gain, and they have a better chance to come out on top with Luis Gil on the mound. Taj Bradley’s inconsistent performances make it hard to trust them in a tight contest. The Yankees’ offense has more firepower and is trending upward with key players returning. I expect a moderately high-scoring affair, but for New York to come out on top. I will lay the runline with the Yankees in this game as they look to move closer to locking up a playoff berth.
