New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins Pick – 8/1/2025
The New York Yankees and Miami Marlins will open up a three-game series at LoanDepot Park in Miami on Friday night. The Yankees go into this game as favorites and with a lot of additions from the trade deadline. But Miami has been playing some solid baseball themselves and will look to surprise New York here. Continue reading to get my analysis of this game and my Yankees vs Marlins prediction for Friday night in South Florida.
Our Yankees vs Marlins Pick
- Pick: Marlins Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins |
| Date & Time | August 1, 2025, 7:10 PM ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Carlos Rodon vs. Janson Junk |
| Stadium | LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Broadcast | MLB.tv |
Key Storylines to Watch
Team Momentum: The Yankees come into this game on a three-game winning streak. They took three out of four games from the Tampa Bay Rays in their last series and have played well despite the absence of Aaron Judge due to injury. Miami is also playing well of late. They have won two games in a row and won their last series over the St. Louis Cardinals.
Pitching Matchup: The Yankees have Carlos Rodon on the mound in this game. Rodon is 11-7 with a 3.18 ERA this season. He will face off against Miami’s Janson Junk. Junk is 5-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 60.1 inning of work in 2025. This is a more evenly-matched pitching matchup than most would expect by looking at the names on the schedule.
- Wild Card Implications: The Yankees hold the first Wild Card spot in the American League at this point in the season. But Miami isn’t completely out of the National League Wild Card race either. The fish are just seven games back of the final Wild Card spot in the NL and will look for a win here to help them move closer.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Kyle Stowers | Hits | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
- This is the first time these teams have played during the 2025 MLB season.
- The Yankees have a losing record on the road at 26-27.
- The Marlins are 24-29 at home so far this year.
- The Marlins have thrown back-to-back shutouts against the Cardinals entering this game.
Yankees vs Marlins Model Projection
Projected Score: Marlins 4 – Yankees 3
Win Probability: Marlins 52% | Yankees 48%
Final Thoughts
The Yankees are the better team when they are healthy. But they are not healthy right now. And Janson Junk has been a sneaky good starting pitcher for Miami this year. I think that Junk can make life tough on what’s left of the Yankees lineup and that the Marlins can do just enough offensively to get the win at home to start this three-game set.
