New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 5/31/2025

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Yankees on May 31, 2025, in a highly anticipated interleague showdown. Both teams are having outstanding seasons, with the Dodgers holding a record of 35-22 and the Yankees at 35-21, making this matchup one of the most exciting of the year. The Dodgers triumphed in their last game on May 30 with an 8-5 victory, while the Yankees fell to the same score, marking a critical moment as they aim to bounce back.

On the mound, the Dodgers are projected to start Landon Knack, who has struggled somewhat this season with a 5.22 ERA, making him one of the lower-ranked starting pitchers at #208 in MLB. Interestingly, Knack displayed improvement in his last start on May 25, where he delivered six innings of one-run ball, striking out five batters. However, facing off against the powerful Yankees lineup, which leads MLB with 92 home runs this season, Knack's penchant for allowing fly balls could spell trouble.

On the other side, Will Warren takes the hill for the Yankees, boasting a 4.09 ERA and an impressive xFIP of 2.85, placing him as the 72nd best starting pitcher. Though Warren's output has been solid, projections suggest he may also struggle, particularly against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for offensive talent.

While the betting lines currently favor the Dodgers with a moneyline of -120, the Yankees' advanced metrics show their offense is potent, making this a close contest. With both teams looking to solidify their standings, expect a thrilling matchup with plenty of offensive fireworks, backed by strong projections from both teams' hitters.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Will Warren is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #3 HR venue among all parks — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Ben Rice has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season's 90-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack has relied on his change-up 9.6% more often this year (25%) than he did last year (15.4%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Bats such as Max Muncy with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Will Warren who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 away games (+7.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+6.95 Units / 27% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5.96, Los Angeles Dodgers 6

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Will Warren - Yankees
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers

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