New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 5/30/2025

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face off against the New York Yankees on May 30, 2025, both teams are enjoying strong seasons, boasting records of 34-22 and 35-20, respectively. This interleague matchup is particularly significant, pitting two of the league's best against one another, and it promises to be an exciting affair at Dodger Stadium.

On the mound, the Dodgers are set to start Tony Gonsolin, who has been somewhat inconsistent this season. He holds a Win/Loss record of 2-1 with an ERA of 4.68, ranking him as an average pitcher in the league. Gonsolin's high flyball rate (42 FB%) could spell trouble against the Yankees' powerful lineup, which has already belted 88 home runs this season, the most in MLB. His struggles with control, evident from an 11.1 BB% this year, may further exacerbate the Yankees' chances to capitalize on walks.

Opposing him, the Yankees will send out Max Fried, who has been nothing short of stellar this season with a 7-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.29, ranking him 5th best among starting pitchers in MLB. Fried's groundball-heavy approach (53 GB%) could be advantageous against the Dodgers' potent offense, which ranks 2nd overall and is particularly strong in hitting home runs (87 this season).

With the Dodgers ranked 17th in bullpen strength and the Yankees at 6th, the late innings could play a crucial role in determining the outcome. Despite the Dodgers' potent offense, the projections favor the Yankees, suggesting they may have the upper hand. With a game total set at 9.0 runs, bettors should anticipate a tightly contested matchup as both teams vie for supremacy.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Max Fried's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (61.4 compared to 49.1% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme groundball batters like DJ LeMahieu are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tony Gonsolin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ben Rice pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

In his previous GS, Tony Gonsolin was firing on all cylinders and notched 9 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Tommy Edman is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order profiles as the strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 53 games (+5.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.02 Units / 27% ROI)
• Max Fried has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.65 Units / 67% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5.39, Los Angeles Dodgers 4.88

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Yankees
  • Tony Gonsolin - Dodgers

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