New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 5/26/2025

The Los Angeles Angels are set to face off against the New York Yankees on May 26, 2025, at Angel Stadium. Both teams come into the game with contrasting seasons, as the Yankees, boasting a record of 32-20, are firmly in contention, while the Angels sit below .500 at 25-27. This matchup marks the first of a series between these American League foes.

In their most recent games, the Angels were shut out 3-0 against the Marlins on May 25, while the Yankees managed a close win, triumphing 5-4 against the Rockies. As the Angels look to rebound, they’ll lean on Jack Kochanowicz, who has pitched 10 games this season, posting a 3-5 record and a 5.03 ERA, ranking him #204 among starting pitchers according to advanced metrics. His struggles include a concerning 11.4% walk rate that could be exploited by the Yankees’ high-walk offense.

Projected pitcher Ryan Yarbrough for the Yankees comes into this matchup with a much stronger 3.38 ERA and a solid recent performance, allowing just one earned run in his last five innings pitched. However, both pitchers face unique challenges: Kochanowicz’s high-groundball nature might reduce the Yankees’ home-run power, while Yarbrough’s high-flyball tendency could be susceptible to the Angels’ potent power-hitting lineup, demonstrated by their 77 home runs this season, which ranks 4th in the league.

Currently, the Angels are underdogs with a moneyline of +140, implying an average team total of 4.23 runs. Meanwhile, the Yankees are favored at -165, with an impressive implied total of 5.27 runs. With distinct strengths and weaknesses on display, this game could hinge on the starting pitchers' ability to manage their respective offenses effectively.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Ryan Yarbrough's 1887.5-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 5th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Anthony Volpe has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last year's 87.6-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in the league.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #9 HR venue in MLB — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Taylor Ward is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jo Adell, Yoan Moncada, Logan O'Hoppe, Matthew Lugo).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+9.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.82 Units / 26% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 33% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5.34, Los Angeles Angels 4.72

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Yarbrough - Yankees
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

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