New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 6/12/2025

On June 12, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the New York Yankees in a pivotal matchup at Kauffman Stadium. Both teams are in contrasting states, with the Yankees boasting a solid 41-25 record and the 1st best offense in MLB, while the Royals sit at 34-34, struggling with the 26th ranked offense. This game is set to be the third in their series, adding a bit of intensity to the matchup. In their previous game, the Yankees won 6-3 for their second straight win over Kansas City.

On the mound, Seth Lugo is projected to start for the Royals, bringing a 3-5 record and a solid 3.46 ERA this season. Despite being ranked as the 131st best starting pitcher, his peripherals suggest he may be due for some regression. Lugo's average outing is projected at 5.6 innings with 3.2 earned runs allowed. He will face Will Warren, who has been more lucky than good this year, holding a 4-3 record but with a troubling 5.34 ERA. Warren's projections suggest he could improve, as he faces a Royals lineup that ranks as the 2nd least in strikeouts.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the Yankees are favored at -150, presenting a strong opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on their high-powered offense against a Royals squad that has struggled to find consistent success at the plate.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Will Warren's 2543-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 97th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jasson Dominguez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 98.6-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Anthony Volpe has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to league average, Seth Lugo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 6.6 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Bobby Witt Jr. is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Kansas City Royals (21.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 67 games (+26.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 66 games (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5.4, Kansas City Royals 4.63

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Will Warren - Yankees
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

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