New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 6/11/2025

On June 11, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the New York Yankees at Kauffman Stadium in a matchup that promises excitement, especially after the Yankees took the first game of the series yesterday. Kansas City will look to bounce back as they try to gain ground in a competitive American League landscape, currently holding a record of 34-33, while New York stands strong with a 40-25.

Projected starting pitchers Kris Bubic and Clarke Schmidt bring contrasting narratives to the mound. Bubic, considered the 31st best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, has posted an impressive 1.43 ERA this season but has been somewhat lucky, as his xFIP of 3.26 suggests he may not maintain this level of performance. He is expected to pitch around 4.9 innings today, with projections indicating he may allow 2.5 earned runs and struggle with walks.

On the other side, Schmidt, ranked 56th, is coming off a solid outing but has experienced some bad luck this season, as suggested by his xERA of 3.06, which indicates he might improve moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, but he will need to keep his flyball tendencies in check against a Royals offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 30th in home runs this season.

Despite their offensive woes, the Royals will look to take advantage of being at home in this American League matchup. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to lead MLB offensively, ranked 1st overall and 2nd in batting average. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, both teams will be vying for an edge, with Kansas City looking to align their pitching with a potential offensive breakthrough.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Clarke Schmidt is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, Anthony Volpe is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.2% rate (91st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Kris Bubic has been lucky this year, compiling a 1.43 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.77 — a 2.34 difference.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Drew Waters has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 76.1-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 57 games (+24.95 Units / 38% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 65 games (+11.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.75 Units / 29% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5.11, Kansas City Royals 4.56

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Kris Bubic - Royals

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