New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 6/10/2025

On June 10, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the New York Yankees at Kauffman Stadium in what marks the first game of their series. The Royals currently stand at 34-32, enjoying an above-average season, while the Yankees are in great form with a record of 39-25. Despite the Royals' solid performance, they are significant underdogs in this matchup, with a moneyline of +170.

The Yankees are led by ace Max Fried, who boasts an impressive 1.78 ERA and a stellar 8-1 win-loss record this season. Fried's advanced stats position him as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his elite status on the mound. In contrast, Royals' Noah Cameron, although having a strong ERA of 0.85, ranks 147th among starting pitchers, suggesting he has benefited from some luck this season. Cameron's projections indicate he may struggle today, averaging 2.9 earned runs allowed and 5.4 hits—both concerning figures against a powerful Yankees lineup that leads MLB with 105 home runs.

While the Royals' offense ranks 26th overall, they do hold a respectable 7th in team batting average, indicating potential for offensive success despite their struggles to hit home runs (30th in the league). This could play to their advantage against Fried, who induces ground balls with a 52% ground ball rate. The projections suggest that the Yankees will score around 4.92 runs, while the Royals’ low implied team total of 3.58 runs reflects the challenges they face.

As the Yankees come into this game with a potent offense and a top-tier pitcher, Kansas City will need to harness their batting average and hope Cameron can outperform expectations to pull off an upset.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Max Fried has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In comparison to his 90-mph average last year, Ben Rice's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94.7 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Projected catcher Austin Wells projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Extreme groundball batters like Salvador Perez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kansas City Royals bats collectively grade out 28th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 61 games (+22.85 Units / 33% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+6.35 Units / 159% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5.47, Kansas City Royals 4.13

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Yankees
  • Noah Cameron - Royals

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