New York Yankees vs Houston Astros Pick – 9/4/2025
The New York Yankees and Houston Astros will meet Thursday night at Daikin Park in Houston in the final game of a three-game series. Both clubs are fighting for playoff positioning late in the regular season. This game will help determine where they ultimately end up. Before this matchup begins deep in the heart of Texas, continue reading to get my Yankees vs Astros prediction for tonight.
Our Yankees vs Astros Pick
- Pick: Yankees Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Get Your Bonus Bets: Click the Claim Bonus button and use bet365 promo code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $300 in bonus bets, win or lose!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs Houston Astros
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 4, 2025, 8:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs Cristian Javier (HOU)
- Stadium: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: MLB Network, Prime Video
Key Storylines
- These teams have split the first two games of this series and the rubber match will be huge for the playoff hopes of both teams.
- Houston is clinging to a four-game division lead over Seattle while New York is holding onto a Wild Card slot.
Pitching Matchup
Carlos Rodon (NYY): Carlos Rodon enters this game with a 15-7 record and a 3.18 ERA on the year. Rodon has allowed a ton of walks this year but he is also one of the top strikeout generators in baseball and will look to shut down the Astros with his ability to miss bats here.
Cristian Javier (HOU): Javier hasn’t seen much game action since returning from injury. But he has been solid so far in 2025 in 16 innings of work. He is averaging a strikeout per inning and will try to pass his biggest test since returning to the field in this game.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Yankees have lost two of their last three games and could use a win to lock up this series tonight.
- Houston has won two of its last three games as it looks to hold onto the lead in the division standings.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 1+ Home Run |
| Carlos Rodon | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Yordan Alvarez | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston holds a 3-2 lead in their season series with the Yankees this year.
- This is the final regular-season game scheduled between these teams this year.
- New York is 36-34 on the road for the season.
- Houston is 43-31 on their home field for the year.
Yankees vs Astros Model Projection
Score Projection: Yankees 6 – Astros 4
Win Probability: Yankees 56%, Astros 44%
Final Thoughts
I like that the Yankees have Rodon on the mound after a tough, high-scoring loss on Wednesday. I think Rodon will be just what the Yankees need to slow down the offense of the Astros in this game. I’ll take the Yankees to win this contest on the moneyline in a game that has huge implications for both teams as we enter the final few weeks of the regular season.
