New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Picks 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The matchup on August 17, 2024, features the Detroit Tigers hosting the New York Yankees at Comerica Park. With the Tigers sitting at 59-64, they are having a below-average season and are not in contention for a playoff spot, while the Yankees boast a solid 73-50 record, positioning themselves as one of the top teams in the league.

In their most recent outing, the Tigers faced the Yankees and lost, continuing a trend of struggles against strong opponents. They are projected to start Keider Montero, who has been less than impressive this season. Montero ranks as the 286th best starting pitcher in MLB with a Win/Loss record of 3-5 and an ERA of 5.76. His projections suggest he’ll struggle again today, averaging 4.5 innings pitched with 2.9 earned runs allowed. This paints a concerning picture for the Tigers’ chances, especially given their offense ranks 26th overall in MLB.

On the other hand, the Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodon, who is having a much better season. Rodon ranks 65th among starting pitchers and has a 13-7 record with a respectable 4.18 ERA. His projections indicate he’ll pitch around 5.6 innings and allow approximately 2.5 earned runs, which should keep the Yankees in a favorable position.

The Yankees' offense is firing on all cylinders, currently ranked 1st in MLB, while the Tigers’ lackluster performance at the plate is evidenced by their 26th rank. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the Yankees are favored heavily, and their high implied team total of 5.17 runs reflects confidence in their ability to score, setting the stage for what could be another challenging game for Detroit.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #24 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Juan Soto has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.8-mph to 96.9-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Keider Montero has put up a 5.54 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that concentrates on the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher's control) this year, checking in at the 19th percentile.

• ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher's deserved runs allowed.

Hitters such as Javier Baez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Carlos Rodon who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Parker Meadows hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 37 games (+17.15 Units / 33% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 90 games (+20.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Austin Wells has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+14.15 Units / 75% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 6.14 vs Detroit Tigers 4.22

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