New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 5/25/2025

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the New York Yankees on May 25, 2025, at Coors Field, they find themselves in the midst of a disappointing season with a record of 9-43. Meanwhile, the Yankees are thriving, holding a strong 31-20 record and showcasing the best offense in MLB. The Rockies' struggles were evident in their last matchup, where they faced the Yankees, losing decisively.

On the mound, the Rockies will send out Antonio Senzatela, who has had a rough go this season, sitting at #274 in Power Rankings among starting pitchers. His ERA of 6.34 indicates significant challenges, and he projects to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 3.6 earned runs today. However, his high ground-ball rate of 50% may provide a glimmer of hope against a Yankees lineup that has been potent but could struggle against ground-ball pitchers.

Opposing him will be Will Warren, projected to be a key player for New York. With a respectable record of 3-2 and an ERA of 4.05, Warren ranks #82 among MLB starters and is expected to deliver an average outing of 5.2 innings with 2.8 earned runs allowed. His strikeout ability (29.7 K%) plays into the Rockies' struggles, as they have the highest strikeout rate in MLB.

The game's total is set at a high 11.0 runs, reflecting expectations of a high-scoring affair. The Rockies are significant underdogs in this matchup, with a moneyline of +245, while the Yankees are favored at -290. Despite their current form, the Rockies' offense, ranked 28th overall, will need to find a way to compete against a Yankees team that leads in home runs and boasts a 5th best batting average.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Will Warren has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 54% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Jasson Dominguez is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Antonio Senzatela's 2210-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 22nd percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nick Martini's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 90.4-mph EV last year has dropped off to 85.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

When assessing his home run skill, Michael Toglia ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 51 games (+14.82 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.82 Units / 21% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.45 Units / 41% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 6.9, Colorado Rockies 5.01

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Will Warren - Yankees
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies

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