New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 5/23/2025

On May 23, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the New York Yankees at Coors Field for the first game of their interleague series. The Rockies are reeling with a dismal record of 8-42 this season, coming off a loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, who shut them out 2-0 in their previous game. In stark contrast, the Yankees bolster a strong 30-19 record and recently triumphed over the Texas Rangers with a narrow 1-0 win, which bodes well for their momentum heading into today’s matchup.

Pitching for the Rockies is Tanner Gordon, who is projected to struggle. With a current ERA of 5.68 and ranking #295 among starting pitchers, Gordon is certainly having a rough year. His last outing on May 8 yielded 4 earned runs over 6 innings, further highlighting his inconsistency. The projections suggest he’ll only pitch around 4.6 innings today, likely allowing 3.8 earned runs.

On the other side, Clarke Schmidt of the Yankees represents a stark contrast as he holds a #73 ranking and an average ERA of 4.41. Schmidt pitched well in his last start on May 17, with 2 earned runs allowed in 6 innings, and he is expected to go at least 5 innings today. While both pitchers have been struggling with earned runs allowed on average, Schmidt’s numbers suggest he might be able to keep the Rockies' offense, which ranks as the 28th best in MLB, in check.

With the Yankees’ offense ranking 1st in MLB and their total projected for 7.60 runs, bettors will closely watch how they manage to exploit Gordon’s weaknesses in this pivotal matchup. Meanwhile, the Rockies, despite being massive underdogs with a moneyline of +260, will need a remarkable turnaround from their top hitter to overcome the odds and make this a competitive game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Clarke Schmidt is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jasson Dominguez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 97.7-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Tanner Gordon has been unlucky in regards to his ERA since the start of last season; his 8.19 mark is a fair amount higher than his 5.58 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

New York's 2nd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Mickey Moniak, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to record the 3rd-most runs (5.49 on average) of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.22 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 36% ROI)
• Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.80 Units / 51% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 7.45, Colorado Rockies 5.49

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Tanner Gordon - Rockies

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