New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 6/25/2025

On June 25, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the New York Yankees at Great American Ball Park for the third game of their interleague series. The Yankees, currently boasting a record of 45-34 and positioned well in the playoff hunt, but are looking to rebound from two straight losses to the Reds. Meanwhile, the Reds have shown resilience with a record of 42-38, performing above average this season.

Pitching will play a crucial role in this matchup, as the Reds are projected to start Brady Singer, who ranks as the 155th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His projections indicate he will pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing a concerning 3.6 earned runs and 5.8 hits. In contrast, the Yankees will counter with Max Fried, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 5th overall. Fried projects to pitch 5.9 innings with a much more favorable projection of 2.3 earned runs allowed.

Betting odds reflect this disparity, with the Reds listed as significant underdogs at +180, translating to an implied probability of just 35% for a win. The projections suggest the Reds will struggle to reach their average implied team total of 3.93 runs, especially against a Yankees lineup that has an impressive implied total of 5.57 runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Given his large reverse platoon split, Max Fried will benefit from squaring off against 8 batters in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in this outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Anthony Volpe has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph dropping to 75.4-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Projected catcher Austin Wells grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among all starters, Brady Singer's fastball velocity of 91.6 mph ranks in the 17th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, hitters like Elly De La Cruz who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Max Fried.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games (+18.12 Units / 26% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 62% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 6.65, Cincinnati Reds 4.01

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Yankees
  • Brady Singer - Reds

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