New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 6/24/2025

The Cincinnati Reds face off against the New York Yankees in a highly anticipated interleague matchup on June 24, 2025. The Reds, sitting at 41-38, are having an above-average season, while the Yankees are performing at an elite level with a record of 45-33. In their last encounter, the Reds took the first game of this series, despite the Yankees ranking 2nd in MLB offensive metrics.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Chase Burns, who has struggled this season with a Power Ranking of 82nd among starting pitchers. Burns is projected to pitch an average of 4.3 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs with a concerning strikeout rate of just 4.7 batters per game. The Yankees counter with Carlos Rodon, who ranks 62nd but has been solid this season, boasting a 9-5 record and a stellar ERA of 3.10. Rodon is expected to provide a more extended outing, averaging 5.2 innings pitched, but will still face some challenges as he projects to allow 3.1 earned runs along with 5.1 hits.

Offensively, the Reds have a middle-of-the-pack batting average and rank 12th in home runs, while the Yankees excel with the 4th best average and 2nd in home runs. With a game total set at 9.5 runs, the betting landscape favors the Yankees as they sit at a moneyline of -160 with an implied team total of 5.25 runs. Conversely, the Reds, as underdogs at +140, have an estimated total of 4.25 runs.

Given the Yankees' dominant offensive ranking and bullpen strength—6th overall—the Reds face an uphill battle. However, if Burns can outperform expectations, Cincinnati may find an opening to even the series.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's 93.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.9-mph fall off from last season's 95.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Wells (the Yankees's expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Chase Burns is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so TJ Friedl can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 73 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+13.32 Units / 23% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 24% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 6.48, Cincinnati Reds 5.27

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Chase Burns - Reds

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