New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Javier Assad - Cubs

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the New York Yankees on September 7, 2024, they are coming off a disappointing loss to the Yankees just a day prior, falling 3-0. This Interleague matchup holds significance as both teams look to improve their standings, with the Cubs currently sitting at 72-69 and the Yankees boasting a strong 81-60 record.

The Cubs will rely on right-handed pitcher Javier Assad, who has had an average season with a 3.21 ERA but ranks as the 198th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating struggles in consistency. Assad's recent performance included 6 innings pitched, allowing 3 earned runs in his last outing, showcasing his tendency to give up runs. Furthermore, he faces a Yankees offense that is particularly patient, leading the league in walks, which could exacerbate his control issues—he has a 9.8 BB% this season.

On the other side, the Yankees will send out Clarke Schmidt, who has been a solid performer with an impressive 2.52 ERA and ranks 47th among MLB starters. Schmidt has proven to be effective, with his last start yielding just 1 earned run over 5 innings, and he projects to allow only 1.8 earned runs today, further solidifying the Yankees' advantage.

Despite the Yankees being favored with a moneyline of -140, the projections indicate that the Cubs may score around 3.43 runs, which is quite low. In contrast, the Yankees are projected to score approximately 4.26 runs. With the Cubs' offense ranking 23rd in both team batting average and home runs, they will need to find a way to break through Schmidt's solid pitching if they hope to turn the tide in this series.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Clarke Schmidt to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Alex Verdugo is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 5th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad has utilized his sinker 5.6% more often this season (35.4%) than he did last season (29.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Isaac Paredes's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 86.9-mph mark last season has fallen to 84.7-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Chicago Cubs offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 81 games (+21.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Austin Wells has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+11.50 Units / 38% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.26 vs Chicago Cubs 3.43

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