New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick & Preview – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Jordan Wicks - Cubs

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the New York Yankees on September 6, 2024, they find themselves in a critical matchup. The Cubs currently hold a record of 72-68, indicating an average season, while the Yankees, at 80-60, are enjoying a solid campaign. This Interleague clash marks the first game of the series and adds an extra layer of excitement given the contrasting fortunes of both teams.

This matchup features two starting pitchers with differing trajectories: Jordan Wicks for the Cubs and Luis Gil for the Yankees. Wicks, a lefty, has had an average year with a 3.82 ERA and a 2-2 record over seven starts. However, his advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, with a FIP of 3.12 indicating potential for improvement.

Meanwhile, Luis Gil has been a more reliable option for the Yankees, posting a 3.39 ERA over 24 starts with a strong 12-6 record. His ability to strike out batters (6.1 projected strikeouts today) positions him well against a Cubs offense that ranks 14th in MLB overall but struggles significantly with a 23rd ranking in team batting average and home runs.

Despite the Cubs being an underdog with a moneyline of +120, projections suggest they have a 46% chance of winning. With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, this game could hinge on the effectiveness of both starting pitchers. Wicks' high walk rate and the Cubs' patience at the plate could create opportunities for runs, making this an intriguing matchup for bettors.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil has experienced some positive variance in regards to his ERA this year; his 3.39 rate is significantly deflated relative to his 3.90 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Alex Verdugo will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jose Trevino, the Yankees's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jordan Wicks’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (91 mph) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (92.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

As it relates to his batting average, Seiya Suzuki has experienced some positive variance this year. His .277 BA has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Chicago Cubs hitters jointly place 7th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 92.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 29 games (+12.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 77 games (+22.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+14.55 Units / 96% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 3.9 vs Chicago Cubs 3.48

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.