New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/14/2024

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Fenway Park will be buzzing on June 14, 2024, as the Boston Red Sox (35-34) host the New York Yankees (49-22) in the opener of a crucial American League East series. The Red Sox are having an average season, while the Yankees are enjoying a stellar campaign and are one of the top teams in baseball.

Boston will send Brayan Bello to the mound. Bello, who has a 6-3 record with a 4.78 ERA, has been somewhat unlucky this year, as his 3.68 xFIP suggests he's likely to perform better moving forward. He'll face a potent Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in runs scored and home runs. However, Bello’s 55% groundball rate could neutralize some of the Yankees’ power.

On the other side, the Yankees will counter with Luis Gil, who has been outstanding this season, boasting an 8-1 record and a 2.04 ERA. However, his 3.62 xFIP indicates he’s been a bit fortunate and might regress. Gil's high strikeout rate (30.7%) plays well against a Red Sox offense that is prone to strikeouts (3rd most in MLB).

Offensively, the Red Sox are no slouches, ranking 8th in runs scored and 9th in stolen bases. Their top hitter over the past week, David Hamilton, has been on fire, hitting .360 with a 1.040 OPS, 2 home runs, and 5 stolen bases. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has been the Yankees' best hitter recently, slashing .417 with a 1.481 OPS, 4 home runs, and 8 RBIs.

The bullpen could be a deciding factor in this matchup. Boston's bullpen ranks last in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Yankees' bullpen sits at 17th. This disparity could give New York an edge in the later innings.

With the Yankees as the betting favorite (-155) and an implied win probability of 59%, they are expected to continue their strong season. However, the Red Sox, with an implied win probability of 41%, have potential value as underdogs in what promises to be an exciting matchup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil has tallied 17.3 outs per start this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Since the start of last season, Aaron Judge's 26.9% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 100th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (59.9% vs. 43.1% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Rafael Devers has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 25.96 ft/sec to 26.48 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Boston Red Sox have been the 7th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 40 games (+22.10 Units / 45% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 37 games (+18.05 Units / 23% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.82 vs Boston Red Sox 4.68

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.