New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/15/2024

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees gear up for the second game of their series on June 15, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Yankees, currently enjoying a stellar season with a 50-22 record, are looking to extend their dominance. Meanwhile, the Red Sox sit at an even 35-35, hoping to turn their average season around.

The pitching duel features right-hander Cooper Criswell for the Red Sox against lefty Carlos Rodon for the Yankees. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Criswell is ranked as the 166th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating a below-average performance. His 4.13 ERA and 3-3 record over 11 starts this season further underscore his struggles. On the other hand, Rodon, ranked 57th, boasts a 9-2 record with a stellar 2.93 ERA over 14 starts, although his 4.30 xFIP suggests he might have been riding some luck.

Offensively, the Yankees have been one of the league's best, ranking 2nd in overall performance and in home runs. Aaron Judge has been on fire recently, hitting .381 with four homers and a 1.409 OPS over the last week. The Red Sox, while not as explosive, still hold their own, ranking 8th in overall offense and 11th in home runs. David Hamilton has been their standout performer of late, hitting .409 with a 1.182 OPS over his last five games.

Bullpen-wise, the Yankees hold an advantage, ranking 17th compared to the Red Sox's dismal 30th. This disparity could play a crucial role late in the game, especially with Criswell's projection to last only 4.7 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs.

With the Yankees favored at -160 and an implied win probability of 60%, they seem poised to continue their strong season. However, the Red Sox, sitting at +140, have a 40% implied win probability and could surprise if Criswell manages to control the Yankees' patient hitters and the bullpen steps up. This game promises to be an intriguing chapter in the storied Boston-New York rivalry.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

DJ LeMahieu's quickness has improved this year. His 25.62 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.34 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Cooper Criswell has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 9.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

David Hamilton has had some very good luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 13.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly inflated relative to his 0.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Boston Red Sox have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O'Neill, Bobby Dalbec, Connor Wong, David Hamilton).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.50 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 37 games (+23.55 Units / 54% ROI)
• Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 67% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.83 vs Boston Red Sox 4.31

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