New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 9/14/2025
Rivalry games in September rarely need extra hype, but this one brings real playoff stakes plus a true ace-versus-upstart feel on the mound. The New York Yankees will face the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park for Sunday Night Baseball. This matchup puts a spotlight on a pitching duel of power lefty Garrett Crochet and rookie righty Will Warren, while Aaron Judge’s torrid bat collides with Boston’s improved defense and opportunistic lineup led by Trevor Story and Alex Bregman. Here, I break down this AL East rivalry game and make my Yankees vs Red Sox prediction for Sunday night.
Our Yankees vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Red Sox Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Will Warren vs Garrett Crochet
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- The Yankees have won the first two games of this three-game set. That has kept New York in second place in the AL East and has dropped the Sox closer to the cut line in the AL Wild Card race.
- Rotation edge Sunday favors Boston: Crochet is in peak form with elite strikeout volume and tidy WHIP, while Warren’s contact profile has been volatile in hitter-friendly parks.
- Judge stays scorching: he launched 2 homers on Thursday and now carries a .325 average with 45 homers and 101 RBI into the series finale.
Pitching matchup
- Garrett Crochet, LHP, Red Sox: 15-5, 2.57 ERA, 228 K. Lefty power at its best, pounding the zone with a high-octane four-seamer and a slider that misses barrels. He struck out 10 in a recent gem and has repeatedly worked 6-plus with minimal traffic on the bases. His profile translates in any park, and the K floor is high even against quality right-hand hitters.
- Will Warren, RHP, Yankees: 8-6, 4.22 ERA, 158 K. Solid raw stuff and bat-missing ability, but the WHIP and walk rate can swell when behind in counts. Boston has previously elevated pitch counts against him. Fenway’s alleys will test Warren’s command to both edges of the plate.
Recent team streaks
- The Yankees have won three games in a row coming into this series finale.
- Boston has lost three straight games coming into Sunday night.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge, NYY | 1+ Home Run |
| Trevor Story, BOS | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Garrett Crochet, BOS | Over 7.5 Strikeouts |
| Will Warren, NYY | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Boston leads the season series 8-4 against the Yankees.
- This is the last regular-season meeting scheduled between these teams in 2025.
- New York has held Boston to four total runs over the first two games of this series.
Yankees vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Yankees 3 – Red Sox 5
Win Probability: Yankees 43%, Red Sox 57%
Final Thoughts
From a betting angle, Sunday sets up as strength-on-strength: the Yankees bring right-handed thunder that punishes lefties, but they face an ace-level left-hander who has overwhelmed top lineups for months and already handled this opponent with authority. Meanwhile, Warren’s stuff can miss bats, yet Boston’s contact quality and pitch-count pressure at Fenway create a credible path to crooked numbers by the middle innings. With Boston’s recent home form, Crochet’s strikeout ceiling, and the head-to-head arc still favorable for the hosts, my money sits on the Red Sox moneyline.
