New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 6/15/2025

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the New York Yankees on June 15, 2025, at Fenway Park, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Yankees, boasting an impressive 42-27 record, are in contention for the division title, while the Red Sox sit at a middling 36-36, struggling to find consistent form this season.

On the mound, the Red Sox will send Brayan Bello, who has had an average season with a 2-1 record and a 3.96 ERA. However, projections indicate that he may be due for a downturn, as his 4.49 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate thus far. Bello's high groundball rate of 53% could be advantageous against the Yankees' powerful lineup, which has hit 109 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in MLB.

Max Fried, slated to pitch for the Yankees, is having an elite season with a 9-1 record and a stellar 1.84 ERA. Fried’s low walk rate of 5.2% may neutralize the Red Sox's patient offense, which ranks 5th in MLB in walks. With Fried projected to allow only 2.0 earned runs today, the Yankees are heavily favored, reflected in their moneyline of -190.

The Red Sox offense, while strong—ranking 6th in MLB overall and 7th in both batting average and home runs—will have to overcome Fried's exceptional control and the Yankees' dominant bullpen, ranked 5th in the league. Given the current projections and the Yankees' recent form, this matchup could tilt heavily in favor of the visitors.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ben Rice has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last year's 90-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Anthony Volpe has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Because groundball batters have a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Brayan Bello and his 50.5% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in this outing going up against 2 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball batters like Romy Gonzalez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox (25.1% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-most strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+8.72 Units / 13% ROI)
• Trevor Story has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+5.65 Units / 63% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5, Boston Red Sox 3.57

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Yankees
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

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