New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 9/12/2025

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will begin a weekend series that will write another chapter in their storied rivalry. Both of these teams are occupying American League Wild Card spots going into the weekend. They both still have a chance of taking the AL East title as well. Before these rivals take the field at Fenway Park, you can continue reading to get my thoughts on this game, including my Yankees vs Red Sox prediction.

Our Yankees vs Red Sox Pick

• Pick: Under 8.5
• Confidence: 3/5
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4.8/5

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
• Date & Time: Friday, September 12, 2025, 7:10 pm ET
• Starting Pitchers: Luis Gil vs Lucas Giolito
• Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Broadcast: Apple TV+

Key Storylines

• These teams are first and second in the American League Wild Card race. They are also both inside of four games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East race. This weekend’s games between these teams will have huge playoff implications on multiple fronts.
• Boston has dominated the Yankees so far this season and they could move ahead of the Yankees in the standings if they continue to dominate New York in this game and in this series as a whole.
• Any time a right-handed power hitter comes into Boston, it makes the game more interesting. Aaron Judge playing at Fenway Park certainly fits that bill. Judge will try to launch the ball over the Green Monster when he comes to the plate in this matchup.
• Aroldis Chapman has come on strong for the Red Sox recently. He could face his former team if the Red Sox call upon him late in this matchup.

Pitching matchup

• Luis Gil is the starting pitcher for the Yankees for this game. Gil is 3-1 on the season and has a 3.31 ERA. He has done a great job of keeping the ball in the yard so far this season. Gil has allowed just two home runs and will try to avoid any deep damage in this contest.
• Boston’s Lucas Giolito will get the start on Friday night. Giolito has reached double-digits in wins for the season with a 10-3 record and a 3.38 ERA. Command can be a question mark for Giolito but he has been solid for the most part in 2025.

Recent team streaks

• The Yankees lost two out of three games to the Detroit Tigers going into this series.
• The Red Sox also won two out of three games in their last series. That was against the Athletics.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Boston is 8-2 against the Yankees this season.
• The Red Sox lost their first meeting with New York this year. They have won eight of the next nine.

Yankees vs Red Sox Model Projection

Score Projection: Yankees 4 – Red Sox 3

Win Probability: Yankees 52%, Red Sox 48%

Final Thoughts

I think that we are in for a close game at Fenway Park here. My best bet is for the game to land under the total of 8.5 runs. My expectation is that both of the solid starting pitchers that are on the mound for this contest will hold strong early and push the scoring pace down in this matchup.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.