New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 6/14/2025

On June 14, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the New York Yankees at Fenway Park for the second game of their series. The Yankees are currently riding high with a record of 42-26, showcasing one of the best offenses in Major League Baseball, ranked 1st in runs scored and 2nd in batting average. In contrast, the Red Sox sit at 35-36, having an average season and struggling to find consistency.

This matchup pits Hunter Dobbins, projected to start for Boston, against Carlos Rodon for New York. Dobbins, ranked 165th among starting pitchers, has had a mixed season, posting a 3-1 record with an ERA of 4.20 over 8 starts. His projections suggest he will struggle, averaging just 4.9 innings pitched while allowing 2.4 earned runs and a concerning 5.0 hits per game.

Conversely, Rodon, an established ace and ranked 57th, boasts an impressive 8-4 record and a stellar 2.87 ERA across 14 starts. His projections indicate he will pitch 5.5 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, but his high strikeout rate of 31.0% could be a deciding factor against a Red Sox lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 2nd in MLB.

The Red Sox offense, while ranked 6th overall, will need to capitalize on their strong batting average and home run production to keep pace with the Yankees. Despite being a sizable underdog with a moneyline of +145 and an implied total of 3.75 runs, Boston's offensive capabilities give them a fighting chance in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Given that groundball hitters hold a big edge over flyball pitchers, Carlos Rodon and his 40.2% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in today's matchup squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Trent Grisham has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Anthony Volpe has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Hunter Dobbins must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 59.2% of the time, ranking in the 78th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Boston Red Sox (25.4% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-most strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+6.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+9.02 Units / 15% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.15 Units / 34% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5.09, Boston Red Sox 4.13

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Hunter Dobbins - Red Sox

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