The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles are set to open a huge four-game series at Camden Yards on Thursday night. The Yankees are fighting for both AL Wild Card positioning and to stay in the hunt in the AL East. They will take on an Orioles team that has just been eliminated from playoff contention. Here, I break down this AL East matchup and bring you my Yankees vs Orioles prediction for tonight’s action.
Our Yankees vs Orioles Pick
- Pick: New York Yankees -1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 18, 2025, 7:15 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Max Fried (NYY) vs Cade Povich (BAL)
- Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- Pitching Matchup: Max Fried enters with a 17-5 record and a 3.03 ERA. He has been dominant on the mound this season and will try to move the Yankees a step closer to postseason baseball with a win tonight. Baltimore’s Cade Povich holds a 3-7 record with a 5.05 ERA. His 1.45 WHIP is a concern, as allowing baserunners can mean trouble in a hurry against the home run hitters of New York.
- Key Players: Aaron Judge continues to lead the Yankees with 48 home runs and 103 RBI. Trent Grisham has been on a tear, adding 12 homers since August 20. Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday are key contributors to the Orioles’ offense. Both will need to perform well in this game for the O’s to come away with a win at home.
- Recent Team Streaks: The Yankees have won four of their last five series, including a series win against the Minnesota Twins. New York enters this game on a two-game winning streak. The Orioles recently completed a three-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox but that was not enough to keep Baltimore in postseason contention.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Trent Grisham | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Max Fried | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- These teams are 3-3 against each other so far this season.
- Home teams are 4-2 in games between the Yankees and Orioles in 2025.
- The Yankees are 21-24 against opponents from the AL East this year.
- Baltimore is 19-23 against division opponents in 2025.
Yankees vs Orioles Model Projection
- Score Projection: Yankees 6 – Orioles 3
- Win Probability: Yankees 65%, Orioles 35%
Final Thoughts
With Max Fried on the mound and a lineup featuring power hitters like Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham, I think the Yankees are well-positioned to cover the runline in this matchup. The Orioles have played with pride lately, especially with their recent sweep of the White Sox. But the disparity in starting pitching quality and offensive firepower gives the Yankees the edge. Betting on New York to win by at least two runs appears to be a solid wager for this game.
