New York Yankees at Washington Nationals Pick For 8/26/2024

• Date: August 26, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are set to host the New York Yankees at Nationals Park on August 26, 2024, in the first game of their interleague series. Currently, the Nationals sit at 59-72, reflecting a below-average season, while the Yankees boast a strong 77-54 record, demonstrating their status as a playoff contender. The Yankees recently had a standout performance, with Aaron Judge leading the charge, and they are 1st in the league in offensive production.

On the mound, the Nationals will send Mitchell Parker to the hill. Parker, ranked #167 among starting pitchers, has struggled this season with a 4.26 ERA and a 7-7 record across 23 starts. His projections for today's game are concerning; he averages only 4.4 innings pitched and is expected to allow 2.8 earned runs, which does not bode well against a potent Yankees lineup. Despite being a low-walk pitcher, Parker will face a Yankees offense that is known for drawing walks—though his control may mitigate this strength.

Opposing him is Nestor Cortes, who has been much more effective this season. Ranked #48 among starting pitchers, Cortes holds a 4.00 ERA and has struck out 5.1 batters per game on average. Although he has a higher flyball rate, he faces a Nationals offense that ranks 29th in home runs, suggesting he may not be severely tested today.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Yankees favored to win, the projections give the Yankees an implied team total of 5.10 runs, while the Nationals are projected to score only 3.90 runs. Given the contrasting trajectories of these teams and the strengths of their respective pitchers, this matchup heavily favors the Yankees as they look to capitalize on a struggling Nationals squad.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Nestor Cortes (42.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 6 GB hitters in Washington's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Gleyber Torres has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.9-mph mark last season has dropped to 86.9-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Washington Nationals today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .288, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .302 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 117 games (+8.30 Units / 5% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 73 games (+22.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jose Trevino has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 32% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.74 vs Washington Nationals 3.54

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