New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet – 6/30/2024

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays take on the New York Yankees on June 30, 2024, at Rogers Centre, there’s plenty at stake in this American League East matchup. The Yankees are contending for the division title with a stellar 53-32 record, while the Blue Jays, at 38-44, are struggling to stay competitive this season.

The Blue Jays are projected to start Kevin Gausman, who holds a 6-6 record with a 4.26 ERA this year. Despite his average ERA, Gausman’s 3.61 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could see improved performance going forward. He faces a tough challenge against the Yankees' potent offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB. Gausman has been solid in his last 16 starts, but his ability to keep the Yankees' high-powered lineup in check will be crucial.

Gerrit Cole will be on the mound for the Yankees, looking to bounce back from a rough start to the season. With a 9.00 ERA over just two starts, Cole’s 6.84 xFIP indicates that he too has been unlucky and could improve. Despite his struggles, Cole’s elite talent remains undeniable, and his matchup against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 25th in home runs could be favorable for him.

The Yankees hold a slight edge in the betting markets with a moneyline of -125, implying a 53% win probability, while the Blue Jays sit at +105 with a 47% implied win probability. Given the Yankees' superior offense and Cole's potential to rebound, the odds seem to favor New York, even in a close matchup.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a bright spot for the Blue Jays, hitting .483 with a 1.655 OPS over the last week, including 5 home runs and 19 RBIs. On the other side, Aaron Judge has been equally impressive for the Yankees, batting .476 with a 1.370 OPS over his last 6 games.

Both bullpens have struggled, with the Blue Jays ranked 24th and the Yankees 20th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating potential late-game volatility. However, the Yankees’ offensive firepower and Cole’s upside give them a slight edge in this pivotal series finale.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of all SPs, Gerrit Cole's fastball velocity of 96 mph ranks in the 95th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Aaron Judge's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 101.9-mph EV last year has fallen off to 99.9-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Trent Grisham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to average, Kevin Gausman has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 7.0 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.272) may lead us to conclude that George Springer has been unlucky this year with his .212 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.75 Units / 47% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+16.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 23 away games (+7.95 Units / 26% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.35 vs Toronto Blue Jays 3.95

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