New York Yankees at Texas Rangers Prediction For 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers will host the New York Yankees in a key matchup on September 4, 2024, at Globe Life Field. Both teams find themselves in contrasting situations, with the Yankees sitting comfortably in playoff contention with a record of 80-59 and the Rangers languishing below .500 at 66-73. This game marks the third of the series, and the Rangers look to build on their recent success, having won their last matchup.

Texas is projected to start Nathan Eovaldi, a right-handed pitcher who has had a solid season despite the team's struggles. Eovaldi is ranked as the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics and boasts a decent ERA of 3.60 this year. His high groundball rate of 50% could work in his favor against a powerful Yankees offense that has hit 149 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in MLB. However, Eovaldi's tendency to allow a high number of hits (5.1 projected today) could be a concern.

On the other side, Marcus Stroman takes the mound for the Yankees. Although he has had a positive season with a 3.81 ERA, his 4.63 xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression. As Eovaldi faces off against Stroman, it’s important to consider the supporting lineups; the Yankees have the 1st best offensive ranking in MLB, while the Rangers rank 23rd. The Yankees’ Jazz Chisholm has been on fire recently, boasting a .524 batting average over the last week, while Texas’ Corey Seager has also shown flashes of brilliance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Globe Life Field — the #6 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Aaron Judge has been lucky this year, compiling a .476 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .427 — a .049 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The 2nd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the New York Yankees.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 62.5% of the time, checking in at the 86th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+17.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 113 games (+21.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 away games (+11.35 Units / 40% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.9 vs Texas Rangers 4.64

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