New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees
  • Brant Hurter - Tigers

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the American League matchup heats up, the Detroit Tigers (59-63) host the New York Yankees (72-50) at Comerica Park on August 16, 2024. Both teams are coming off recent victories; the Tigers edged out the Mariners 2-1 while the Yankees enjoyed a commanding 10-2 win over the White Sox. The Tigers are aiming to build on their momentum, but they face a tough challenge against one of the league's elite offenses.

Projected starters Brant Hurter and Gerrit Cole paint a contrasting picture for today's game. Hurter, ranked as the 125th best starting pitcher in MLB, has shown flashes of promise with a solid ERA of 3.38, yet his performance has been marred by a lack of run support and an unfavorable projected output of 3.9 innings pitched today. In contrast, Gerrit Cole, sitting at 29th in the rankings, boasts a respectable 4.70 ERA and a solid outing in his last start where he went five innings allowing just one earned run while striking out ten batters.

The Yankees' offense stands out, ranking 1st in MLB and hitting an impressive 149 home runs this season. They project to score an average of 5.46 runs in this game, while the Tigers, with a struggling offense ranked 26th, have a low projection of just 3.97 runs. Despite the Tigers' recent win, the projections suggest they may struggle to keep up with the Yankees' explosive lineup.

Adding to the intrigue, Hurter's tendency for ground balls could play a pivotal role against a powerful Yankees offense that thrives on home runs. However, with Hurter's control issues, he may find it challenging to navigate through the lineup effectively. As the Tigers look to defy the odds, they will need standout performances, especially from their best hitter, Matt Vierling, to keep this contest competitive.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Gerrit Cole has used his secondary offerings 6.6% more often this year (53.6%) than he did last season (47%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, bats like DJ LeMahieu who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brant Hurter.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Gio Urshela is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jake Rogers, the Tigers's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 72 games (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 63 games (+22.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.65 Units / 93% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.37 vs Detroit Tigers 4.01

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.