Yankees vs Guardians Game 4 Prediction For 10/18/2024

• Date: October 18, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

Yankees vs Guardians Game 4 Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game 4 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game 4 Betting Preview

As the American League Championship Series continues, the Cleveland Guardians host the New York Yankees at Progressive Field on October 18, 2024, for Game 4. The Yankees lead the series 2-1, putting the Guardians in a situation where they can even this series with a win at home tonight. Cleveland will rely on Gavin Williams, a right-handed pitcher ranked #86 in MLB starting pitcher Power Rankings, indicating he's above average despite his 3-10 Win/Loss record and 4.86 ERA. His 4.12 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky this season, and he could be due for a bounce-back performance. The Yankees counter with Luis Gil, who boasts a 15-7 record and a strong 3.50 ERA, though his 4.36 xFIP implies he's benefited from some luck.

The Guardians' offense ranks 17th overall but has struggled with a 22nd ranking in batting average. However, they excel in power, ranking 11th in home runs, and are aggressive on the basepaths, ranking 5th in stolen bases. Brayan Rocchio has been a standout for the Guardians recently, hitting .467 with a 1.133 OPS over the last week.

The Yankees, with the 3rd-best offense in MLB, are potent, ranking 9th in batting average and 2nd in home runs. Their high-walk approach, leading MLB in walks, could exploit Williams' control issues, as he has a high 9.6 BB% this year.

Both teams feature strong bullpens, with the Yankees ranked 6th and the Guardians 7th, suggesting a tight contest. Betting markets have the Yankees slightly favored with a -115 moneyline, translating to a 51% implied win probability. However, the Guardians' potential for a turnaround, combined with the Yankees' possible overperformance, could tip the scales in Cleveland's favor if Williams capitalizes on his underlying metrics. With a game total set at 7.5 runs, expect a closely contested battle as the Guardians fight to even the series.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Considering that groundball batters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Luis Gil (38.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Gavin Williams in the 77th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians's expected catcher today) projects as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+13.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 71 of their last 122 games (+18.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Luis Gil has hit the Strikeouts Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 31% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game 4 Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.35 vs Cleveland Guardians 3.84

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