New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 4/14/2024

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 125, Guardians 1.5 -145
• Money Line: Yankees -135, Guardians 115
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -115

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Yankees - 55%
• Cleveland Guardians - 45%

Projected Win %:

• New York Yankees - 55.5%
• Cleveland Guardians - 44.5%

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game Preview & Prediction

The Cleveland Guardians are set to face off against the New York Yankees on April 14, 2024, at Progressive Field. As the home team, the Guardians will be looking to continue their strong season, boasting a record of 9-5. The Yankees, as the away team, have been dominant with a record of 12-3. This American League matchup promises an exciting game for baseball fans.

On the mound, the Guardians are projected to start left-handed pitcher Logan Allen. Allen has started three games this season, maintaining an undefeated record of 2-0. While his ERA stands at 4.60, his 3.52 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Yankees will send left-handed pitcher Nestor Cortes to the mound. Cortes has also started three games, with a record of 1-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.50.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Guardians hold the 14th spot in the MLB, while the Yankees rank 11th. However, the Guardians have struggled in the home run department, ranking last in the league. On the other hand, the Yankees have displayed power, ranking 8th in team home runs. The Guardians have excelled in stolen bases, ranking 7th, while the Yankees sit at 20th in this category.

Both teams have strong bullpens, with the Guardians ranking 13th and the Yankees ranking 5th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the game could be well-contested in the later innings.

Looking at the projections, Allen is expected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.2 batters, and conceding 5.1 hits. Cortes, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.5 batters, and conceding 5.3 hits.

In terms of betting odds, the Guardians are listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +115, implying a 45% win probability. The Yankees, with a moneyline of -135, have a 55% win probability. This indicates that the game is expected to be closely contested.

Considering the matchups and statistical analysis, this game has the potential to be a thrilling battle between the Guardians and the Yankees. Both teams have been performing well this season, and with strong pitching and offense, it could come down to the wire. Baseball fans are in for a treat as these teams take the field and compete for victory.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Nestor Cortes faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Judge as the 16th-best batter in the game when estimating his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Juan Soto hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen's 2034-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 116-rpm decrease from last year's 2150-rpm figure.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Austin Hedges grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Yankees vs Guardians Prediction: Yankees 4.87 - Guardians 4.1

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