New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 4/12/2024

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 110, Guardians 1.5 -130
• Money Line: Yankees -150, Guardians 125
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Yankees - 57%
• Cleveland Guardians - 43%

Projected Win %:

• New York Yankees - 53.57%
• Cleveland Guardians - 46.43%

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game Preview & Prediction

The Cleveland Guardians are set to host the New York Yankees in an American League matchup at Progressive Field on April 12, 2024. The Guardians, with a season record of 9-3, are having a great season, while the Yankees boast a 10-3 record and are also performing exceptionally well.

The Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco, who has started two games this year. Although his win/loss record stands at 0-0, Carrasco has an average ERA of 4.50. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his 2.49 xERA and 2.85 FIP, suggest that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Yankees are projected to start right-handed pitcher Clarke Schmidt, who has also started two games this year. Schmidt holds an average ERA of 4.66, but his 3.78 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is expected to improve in future outings.

The Guardians offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB this season, showcasing their average batting talent. However, they struggle in the home run department, ranking last in the league. Nevertheless, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 7th in the league.

The Yankees offense, on the other hand, ranks 9th best in MLB, demonstrating their overall strong performance. While they struggle with team batting average, ranking 29th, they make up for it with their power, ranking 8th in home runs.

In terms of bullpen strength, THE BAT X considers the Yankees to have the 4th best bullpen in MLB, while the Guardians rank 12th. This suggests that the Yankees have a slight advantage when it comes to relief pitching.

Considering the team totals, the Guardians are projected to score an average of 3.96 runs, while the Yankees have a higher projection of 4.54 runs, indicating a potentially higher-scoring game.

With the current odds, the Guardians are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +120, implying a win probability of 44%. The Yankees, as the betting favorites, hold a moneyline of -140, suggesting a win probability of 56%.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Clarke Schmidt is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Giancarlo Stanton has strong power (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Carlos Carrasco doesn't generate many whiffs (15th percentile K%) — great news for Stanton.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco has used his curveball 5.4% more often this season (14.7%) than he did last year (9.3%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In the last two weeks, Bo Naylor has been exhibiting poor exit velocity numbers, with an average of only 82.3-mph on his flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Cleveland Guardians with a 17.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 65 away games (+10.55 Units / 15% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees 5.28 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.63

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