New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox Best Bet – 8/12/2024

New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Ky Bush - White Sox

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On August 12, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the New York Yankees at Guaranteed Rate Field in the first game of their series. The White Sox, sitting at 28-91 this season, are struggling significantly and currently rank 30th in MLB Power Rankings. They are projected to start Ky Bush, who has had a rough outing with an 0-1 record and a dismal 6.75 ERA. Meanwhile, the Yankees are having a stellar season, boasting a record of 70-49 and ranking 1st in MLB Power Rankings. Luis Gil, their projected starter, has been solid with a 12-5 record and a 3.06 ERA.

The matchup heavily favors the Yankees, not only due to their offensive prowess—ranking 1st in the league—but also because they face a White Sox offense that sits in the 30th position in team rankings. Bush's high flyball percentage (45 FB%) could be troubling against a Yankees lineup that has already belted 149 home runs this season, placing them 2nd in the league. Additionally, Bush struggles with walks, which may give the Yankees ample opportunities to capitalize, as they lead MLB in walks drawn.

Despite the White Sox's struggles, Andrew Benintendi has shown signs of life recently, leading the team in the past week with a .300 batting average and 7 RBIs. However, with an implied team total of only 3.34 runs for this game, the White Sox will need more than just Benintendi to pull off an upset against the Yankees.

Given the projections and current team performances, this matchup appears to significantly favor the Yankees, making them a strong choice for bettors looking to capitalize on this lopsided contest.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 3.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.270) suggests that DJ LeMahieu has been unlucky this year with his .189 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The New York Yankees have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Ky Bush in the 19th percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Nicky Lopez is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 45 games (+4.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 56 games (+20.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 6.33 vs Chicago White Sox 3.84

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.