New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 7/27/2024

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees gear up for the second game of their series on July 27, 2024, at Fenway Park, fans can expect a closely contested matchup between these American League East rivals. The Red Sox are holding their ground with a 55-47 record, having an above-average season, while the Yankees are ahead in the standings with a 60-45 record, performing well so far.

In their previous encounter, the Red Sox came back to beat the Yankees, which should add extra intensity to today's game. The Red Sox will rely on Kutter Crawford, who has been solid with a 3.33 ERA but has shown signs of luck with an xFIP of 4.12. Crawford, a high-flyball pitcher, will face a potent Yankees offense that ranks 2nd in MLB with 149 home runs. This could spell trouble for Crawford if he can't keep the ball in the park.

The Yankees will counter with Marcus Stroman, who sports a 3.51 ERA, though his 4.69 xFIP suggests he's been lucky as well. Stroman's low strikeout rate (17.8 K%) might not be as big a weakness against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts. However, with the Red Sox's offense ranking 4th overall, 4th in batting average, and 7th in home runs, they are well-equipped to exploit any mistakes Stroman might make.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees have a slight edge, projecting their win probability at 53%. This aligns with a high-scoring game as the projected run totals suggest, with the Red Sox expected to score 4.74 runs and the Yankees 5.38 runs. Both teams' bullpens have struggled, with the Red Sox ranked 27th and the Yankees 21st in the Power Rankings, which could contribute to a high-scoring affair.

Key players to watch include Tyler O'Neill for the Red Sox, who has been hot with a .364 batting average and four home runs over the past week. For the Yankees, Juan Soto has also been in excellent form, hitting .360 with three home runs in his last six games.

With both teams boasting strong offenses and less reliable bullpens, today's game promises to be an exciting slugfest. Betting markets also see this as an evenly matched contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, with the Yankees slightly favored in expert projections, they might just have the upper hand in this rivalry showdown.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Over his previous 3 games started, Marcus Stroman has experienced a sizeable decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2247 rpm over the whole season to 2195 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Austin Wells has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the New York Yankees.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Considering that groundball pitchers hold a sizeable edge over groundball batters, Kutter Crawford and his 41.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in this game matching up with 2 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Rafael Devers has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.9-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 94.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+9.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 72 games (+11.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 23 away games (+12.90 Units / 56% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.38 vs Boston Red Sox 4.74

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.