New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles Pick For 7/14/2024

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees are set for a pivotal American League East clash on July 14, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Orioles sporting a 57-38 record and the Yankees at 58-39. This third game in the series will feature Dean Kremer for the Orioles and Carlos Rodon for the Yankees on the mound.

Kremer, who is having a rough year according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, is ranked #209 out of 350 starting pitchers. His 4.42 ERA is considered average, but advanced metrics like his 5.49 xERA suggest he's been lucky and could regress. Kremer's high-flyball tendency (40 FB%) could be problematic against the Yankees' powerful offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB in home runs with 135.

On the flip side, Rodon is ranked #89 among starting pitchers, making him an above-average arm. Despite his 4.63 ERA, his 3.93 SIERA suggests he's been a bit unlucky and might improve. However, Rodon’s high-flyball rate (44 FB%) may also play into the Orioles' strength, as they lead MLB with 147 home runs this season.

Offensively, both teams are dynamic. The Orioles boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, leading in home runs and ranking 7th in batting average. The Yankees are not far behind, ranking 4th overall and 2nd in home runs. While the Orioles' offense is slightly more well-rounded, the Yankees' power can never be underestimated.

Betting markets expect a close game, with the Orioles having a slight edge with a -115 moneyline and an implied win probability of 51%. The Yankees are at -105, with a 49% implied win probability. Given the projected high-scoring nature of this game, as indicated by the total set at 9.0 runs, look for both offenses to potentially exploit the starting pitchers’ flyball tendencies. With the Orioles’ superior offensive ranking and the slight edge in betting odds, they might just have the upper hand in this closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Carlos Rodon has used his off-speed and breaking balls 10.2% more often this season (49.8%) than he did last season (39.6%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Juan Soto is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Gleyber Torres has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.3-mph fall off from last year's 94.1-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Cedric Mullins II has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Baltimore Orioles projected offense ranks as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 80 games (+10.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 69 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+11.00 Units / 69% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.59 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.98

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