New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/5/2024

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On June 5, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the New York Mets at Nationals Park for an exciting National League East matchup. The Nationals, with a record of 27-33, are having a below-average season, while the Mets, with a record of 26-35, are struggling with a bad season.

The Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin, who has had a challenging year with a win/loss record of 1-6 and an ERA of 5.83. However, his 4.54 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Mets are expected to start right-handed pitcher Luis Severino, whose 3.52 ERA indicates a good season, although his 4.22 xFIP suggests he may regress in the future.

In terms of offense, the Nationals rank 27th in MLB, while the Mets rank 15th. The Nationals have a higher team batting average, ranking 6th, but struggle with home runs, ranking 29th. The Mets have an average ranking in both batting average (24th) and home runs (11th). Both teams have an average ranking in stolen bases, with the Nationals at 14th and the Mets at 15th.

Considering the pitching matchup, Corbin's low strikeout rate (13.8 K%) may be less effective against the Mets, who have the 4th fewest strikeouts in MLB. Severino, with a low strikeout rate as well (20.0 K%), may face a challenge against the Nationals, who have the 2nd fewest strikeouts in MLB. However, Severino's high groundball rate (51 GB%) may work in his favor against the Nationals, who have a lack of power with the 2nd fewest home runs in MLB. Additionally, Severino's high walk rate (10.0 BB%) may not be fully exploited by the Nationals, who rank 4th in the league with the fewest walks.

According to the current odds, the Mets are favored to win with an implied win probability of 56%, while the Nationals are the underdogs with a 44% implied win probability. The Mets have a higher team total of 4.81 runs, while the Nationals have an average implied team total of 4.19 runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Severino has utilized his secondary offerings 10.3% less often this season (40.8%) than he did last year (51.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Brandon Nimmo is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The New York Mets have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 13.9° mark is among the highest in the league since the start of last season (#3 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Among all starting pitchers, Patrick Corbin's fastball velocity of 90.9 mph ranks in the 15th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 47 games (+7.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+10.10 Units / 33% ROI)
• Luis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.54 vs Washington Nationals 4.94

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