New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/2/2024

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • DJ Herz - Nationals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals and New York Mets are set to clash on July 2, 2024, at Nationals Park in a National League East matchup. The Nationals, with a 39-44 record, are struggling this season and find themselves in the lower tier of the standings. On the other hand, the Mets, sitting at 40-41, are hovering around the .500 mark and have shown flashes of potential.

In yesterday's series opener, the Mets edged out the Nationals, adding to Washington's woes. The Nationals will look to bounce back with DJ Herz on the mound. Herz has had a tough season, boasting a 5.48 ERA and a 1-2 record through five starts. However, his 3.78 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could see better days ahead. Herz is a high-flyball pitcher, which could spell trouble against a powerful Mets lineup that ranks 4th in MLB with 102 home runs this season.

Opposing Herz will be Sean Manaea, who has been a steady presence for the Mets. With a 5-3 record and a solid 3.89 ERA over 15 starts, Manaea has been reliable. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicate that Manaea is expected to pitch 5.6 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, which aligns with his season averages.

Offensively, the Mets hold a significant advantage. They rank 6th in MLB in overall offensive production, 10th in batting average, and 4th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Nationals' offense has struggled, ranking 24th overall and 29th in home runs. However, Washington does have a bright spot in CJ Abrams, who has been on a tear over the last week with a .500 batting average and a 1.418 OPS.

The Nationals' bullpen, ranked 29th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, could be a liability, especially against a Mets offense that can capitalize on late-game opportunities. In contrast, the Mets' bullpen ranks 18th, offering a more stable option to close out the game.

Betting markets favor the Mets with a moneyline of -135, implying a 55% win probability. Given the Nationals' struggles and the Mets' offensive prowess, the Mets appear to have the upper hand in this matchup.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has relied on his sinker 33.2% more often this year (33.9%) than he did last season (0.7%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The New York Mets have been the 5th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

DJ Herz struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his previous game started and notched 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Despite posting a .237 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Keibert Ruiz has had bad variance on his side given the .058 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 79 games (+7.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 75 games (+16.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.2 vs Washington Nationals 4.17

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