New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 8/21/2025
NL East rivals will wrap up a three-game series as the New York Mets visit the Washington Nationals. These familiar foes have split the first two games of the series from Nationals Park. New York is the favorite to win this rubber match on the road. Before first pitch from Washington, continue reading to get my Mets vs Nationals prediction for Thursday afternoon.
Our Mets vs Nationals Pick
- Pick: Nationals Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 21, 2025, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea (Mets) vs MacKenzie Gore (Nationals)
- Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
- Broadcast: MASN and SNY
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Sean Manaea takes the mound with a 4.78 ERA and a 1-1 record for the Mets. He’s been hit hard in recent starts. Manaea has allowed 13 runs on 19 hits in just under 15 innings in his last three games. MacKenzie Gore will start this game for Washington. He enters this contest with a 4.04 ERA and he has allowed two runs on seven hits across 12 innings in his last couple of starts. The Nats have the starting pitching advantage here and will try to take advantage of that.
Key Players
Cedric Mullins was the only Met to have a multi-hit game in Wednesday’s loss to the Nationals. It would be huge for the Mets if they could get production from him in the bottom of their order. Josh Bell had a home run and a sac fly in Wednesday’s win for the Nats and his contributions will be valuable again in this game.
Recent team streaks
- The Mets had a three-game winning streak snapped by the Nats on Wednesday. They are 3-2 in thier last five games.
- Washington is 2-3 in its last five outings. They ended a two-game losing streak with Wednesday’s win.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| MacKenzie Gore | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Pete Alonso | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets lead the season series against the Nationals 6-3.
- These teams are 3-3 against each other at Nationals Park in 2025.
- The first two games of this series have had exactly nine total runs scored in each game.
Mets vs Nationals Model Projection
Score Projection: Nationals 6 – Mets 4
Win Probability: Nationals 55%, Mets 45%
Final Thoughts
The Mets are the better team overall going into this series finale from Washington. But the Nationals have a fighting chance to get another win over the Mets at home today. Gore is a better starting pitcher than Manaea right now and that should give Washington a chance to go into the late innings with a lead. I think they will take advantage of that opportunity and pick up the win to close out this three-game set.
